[1]钟秉林.一种新的组合预测方法及其应用[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),1989,19(2):1-8.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.1989.02.001]
 Zhong Binglin (Department of Mechanical Engineering).A New Method of Combinatorial Forecasting and Its Application[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),1989,19(2):1-8.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.1989.02.001]
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一种新的组合预测方法及其应用()
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《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-0505/CN:32-1178/N]

卷:
19
期数:
1989年第2期
页码:
1-8
栏目:
本刊信息
出版日期:
1989-03-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
A New Method of Combinatorial Forecasting and Its Application
作者:
钟秉林
东南大学机械工程系
Author(s):
Zhong Binglin (Department of Mechanical Engineering)
关键词:
系统辨识 预测技术 参数估计 自回归模型 报刊发行/灰色模型 组合预测
Keywords:
systems identification prediction technique parameter estimation autoregressive models newspaper and periodicals distribution/grey model combinatorial forecasting
分类号:
+
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.1989.02.001
摘要:
基于灰色系统和时间序列分析理论,并结合社会经济系统的特点,本文提出了用灰色模型和自回归模型分别拟合数据序列的趋势项和波动项的组合预测方法及其相应的算法,并据此对我国报纸发行量进行了预测。研究结果表明:该方法具有较高的精度,适用于社会经济等抽象系统的建模分析和预测。
Abstract:
Considering the feature of social and economic system, a new method of combinatorial forecasting and its algorithm are proposed and used to forecast the newspaper circulation. The method is based on the theory of grey system and time series analysis, in which the grey model and autoregressive model are respectively used to describe the deterministic and stochastic part of data series. The results show that the method proposed is of fairly high acuracy, and is available to analyse the abstract social and ecconomic system.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2013-04-30