[1]刘聪,秦伟良,江志红.基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2006,36(2):331-334.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2006.02.032]
 Liu Cong,Qin Weiliang,Jiang Zhihong.Computation of design basic wind velocity and its confidence limits based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2006,36(2):331-334.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2006.02.032]
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基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算()
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《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-0505/CN:32-1178/N]

卷:
36
期数:
2006年第2期
页码:
331-334
栏目:
其他
出版日期:
2006-03-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Computation of design basic wind velocity and its confidence limits based on generalized extreme value distribution
作者:
刘聪1 秦伟良2 江志红1
1 南京信息工程大学大气科学系, 南京 210044; 2 东南大学经济管理学院, 南京 210096
Author(s):
Liu Cong1 Qin Weiliang2 Jiang Zhihong1
1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2 College of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210098, China
关键词:
广义极值分布 基本风速 拟合优度检验 置信限
Keywords:
GED basic wind velocity fitness test confidence limit
分类号:
P425.6
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2006.02.032
摘要:
引入涵盖Gumbel,Frechet,Weibull三类极值渐近分布的广义极值分布(GED)模型,给出该模型参数的极大似然估计的计算公式,并由此导出设计基本风速及其置信上限的计算方法.采用南通气象观测站的年最大风速资料进行实证研究,分别用似然比法和Kolmogorv统计量检验分布的拟合优度,得出南通气象观测站年最大风速符合Frechet分布,而由样本值构造的经验分布与理论分布曲线基本相吻合.因此,由GED模型导出的计算方法明显优于采用单一分布的方法.
Abstract:
Generalized extreme distribution(GED)model, which summarizes three gradually approximate distribution, i.e. Gumbel, Frechet and Weibull distribution, is introduced and the calculating formulas of GED’s parameters by using maximum likelihood estimate method are given. Furthermore, the computing methods of design basic wind velocity and its higher confidence limits are derived in this paper. Finally, the wind velocity data of Nantong observatory are used to verify the methods above-mentioned, and the likelihood ratio method and Kolmogorov statistic are used to test the fitness of the distribution. It is obtained that the distribution of yearly extreme wind velocity of the observatory is in keeping with Frechet distribution, and the experimental distribution form from samples basically coincides with the theoretical ones. Therefore, compared with the individual extreme distribution, the algorithm derived from GED model is obviously preferable.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目: 香港特区政府资助局资助项目(CUHK/4180/01E,CUHK/1/00C)、苏通长江大桥建设资助项目.
作者简介: 刘聪(1964—),男,博士生,教授级高级工程师,liucongjs@vip.sina.com; 江志红(联系人),女,博士,教授,博士生导师,jiangnim@jlonline.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2006-03-20