[1]杨杰,李爱群.《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》之质疑[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,38(4):698-703.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2008.04.030]
 Yang Jie,Li Aiqun.Discussion on “Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability”[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2008,38(4):698-703.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2008.04.030]
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《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》之质疑()
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《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-0505/CN:32-1178/N]

卷:
38
期数:
2008年第4期
页码:
698-703
栏目:
环境科学与工程
出版日期:
2008-07-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Discussion on “Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability”
作者:
杨杰12 李爱群1
1 东南大学混凝土及预应力混凝土结构教育部重点实验室, 南京 210096; 2 南京航空航天大学土木工程系, 南京 210016
Author(s):
Yang Jie12 Li Aiqun1
1 Key Laboratory of Concrete and Prestressed Concrete Structures of Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
2 Department of Civil Engineering, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
关键词:
汶川地震 可公度 地震预测 地震序列 随机序列
Keywords:
Wenchuan earthquake commensurability earthquake forecast earthquake series stochastic series
分类号:
X43
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2008.04.030
摘要:
本文采用发表于2006年的《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》一文所用的可公度法,对该文中的原始地震序列进行了系统的计算分析,并与随机序列进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)该地震序列中蕴含的可公度频数较高(均值为50),而该文认为能够写出3组以上可公度式即可说明可公度性较好,根据是不足的;(2)本文对2000—2010年的11个年份进行可公度预测分析,其可公度频数统计(均值为43)显示,2008年(频数为44)并未表现出特殊性,而该文仅根据3个可公度式进行预测,是缺乏依据的;(3)将该地震序列与随机序列进行对比分析可知,该地震序列的可公度性并不强于(甚至弱于)随机序列,因而针对该地震序列进行的可公度预测是不可信的.综合以上分析,本文认为虽然该文的预测结论与2008年5月12日汶川大地震巧合,但因其研究过程和研究方法均存在明显不足之处,故所得结论难以令人信服.
Abstract:
This paper presents a systematic study of the same original earthquake series based on the same commensurability method as in the paper “Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability” published in 2006. The results show that,(1)The earthquake series contains higher commensurability frequency, with a mean value of 50; so, it is baseless that the series is believed to present good commensurability only by more than 3 groups of commensurability formulae in that paper.(2)The commensurability forecast for the 11 years between 2000 and 2010 shows that the year 2008 does not present any particularity, and the commensurability frequency of year 2008 is 44 while the mean commensurability frequency is 43; so, it is unfounded to forecast only by 3 commensurability formulae.(3)Comparison study shows that the commensurability of the earthquake series in question is not better(even worse)than the stochastic series; so, the commensurability forecasting based on the earthquake series is incredible. It can be concluded that although the forecast results in that paper coincide with of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 by chance, its research procedure and methodology are questionable, and the conclusion is unbelievable.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介: 杨杰(1976—),男,博士; 李爱群(联系人),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,aiqunli@sina.com.
引文格式: 杨杰,李爱群.《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》之质疑[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2008,38(4):698-703.
更新日期/Last Update: 2008-07-20