# [1]陆莹,李启明,周志鹏.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地铁运营安全风险预测[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,40(5):1110-1114.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043] 　Lu Ying,Li Qiming,Zhou Zhipeng.Safety risk prediction of subway operation based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2010,40(5):1110-1114.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043] 点击复制 基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地铁运营安全风险预测() 分享到： var jiathis_config = { data_track_clickback: true };

40

2010年第5期

1110-1114

2010-09-20

## 文章信息/Info

Title:
Safety risk prediction of subway operation based on fuzzy Bayesian network

Author(s):
School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Keywords:

X951
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043

Abstract:
In order to quantify the safety risk of the subway operation and identify the critical event associated to the risk, the causal relationships of the accidents are established by using the Bayesian network from the perspective of organizational and human errors. Based on the fuzzy set theory, the fuzzy semantics and the integral value method are applied to quantify the conditional probability of basic events. A case of fire accident due to human errors during the subway operation is used to deduce the fire risk probability according to the Bayesian network rule. The results show that the fuzzy Bayesian network can predict the safety risk of the subway operation and the obtained risk probability reflects the situation of the subway system. The sensitivity analysis results show that the over-temperature of the axle, which causes the highest sensitivity factor, is the critical event causing fire accident. On-site management is the most important event among the top-events causing the over-temperature of the axle. Therefore, strengthening the on-site management can effectively reduce the probability of the accident.

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