[1]陆莹,李启明,周志鹏.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地铁运营安全风险预测[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,40(5):1110-1114.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043]
 Lu Ying,Li Qiming,Zhou Zhipeng.Safety risk prediction of subway operation based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2010,40(5):1110-1114.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043]
点击复制

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地铁运营安全风险预测()
分享到:

《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-0505/CN:32-1178/N]

卷:
40
期数:
2010年第5期
页码:
1110-1114
栏目:
其他
出版日期:
2010-09-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Safety risk prediction of subway operation based on fuzzy Bayesian network
作者:
陆莹 李启明 周志鹏
东南大学土木工程学院,南京 210096
Author(s):
Lu Ying Li Qiming Zhou Zhipeng
School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
关键词:
地铁 贝叶斯网络 模糊集 安全风险
Keywords:
subway Bayesian network fuzzy set safety risk
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043
摘要:
为了量化地铁运营安全风险并识别相关风险的关键事件,从组织、人因错误的角度出发,利用贝叶斯网络构建了事故的致因关系.同时,基于模糊集理论,利用模糊语义及积分值法量化基本事件的条件概率.案例研究中,针对某地铁火灾事故,依据贝叶斯网络推理得出火灾事故的发生概率.研究结果表明,模糊贝叶斯网络对于地铁运营安全风险预测是切实可行的,计算得到的风险概率反映了地铁系统目前的安全状况.敏感性分析结果显示,车轴温度过高引起的敏感性因子最大,是引起火灾风险的关键事件.在引起这个关键事件的顶事件中,现场管理更为重要,因此加强现场管理能够更加有效地降低事故发生的概率.
Abstract:
In order to quantify the safety risk of the subway operation and identify the critical event associated to the risk, the causal relationships of the accidents are established by using the Bayesian network from the perspective of organizational and human errors. Based on the fuzzy set theory, the fuzzy semantics and the integral value method are applied to quantify the conditional probability of basic events. A case of fire accident due to human errors during the subway operation is used to deduce the fire risk probability according to the Bayesian network rule. The results show that the fuzzy Bayesian network can predict the safety risk of the subway operation and the obtained risk probability reflects the situation of the subway system. The sensitivity analysis results show that the over-temperature of the axle, which causes the highest sensitivity factor, is the critical event causing fire accident. On-site management is the most important event among the top-events causing the over-temperature of the axle. Therefore, strengthening the on-site management can effectively reduce the probability of the accident.

参考文献/References:

[1] Neil M,Fenton N,Forey S,et al.Using Bayesian belief networks to predict the reliability of military vehicles [J].Computing & Control Engineering Journal,2001,12(1):11-20.
[2] Marsh W,Bearfield G.Using Bayesian networks to model accident causation in the UK railway industry [EB/OL].[2010-02-10].http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~william/PSAM7/accident-causation-PSAM7.pdf.
[3] Norrington L,Quigley J,Russell A,et al.Modelling the reliability of search and rescue operations with Bayesian belief networks [J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(7):940-949.
[4] Kim M C,Seong P H.An analytic model for situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators based on Bayesian inference [J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(13):270-282.
[5] Luxhøj J T.Probabilistic causal analysis for system safety risk assessments in commercial air transport [C] //Proceedings of the Workshop on Investigating and Reporting of Incidents and Accidents.Williamsburg,VA,USA,2003:17-38.
[6] Trucco P,Cagno E,Ruggeri F,et al.A Bayesian belief network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: a case study in maritime transportation [J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(6):845-856.
[7] Federal Transit Administration.Transit safety & security statistics & analysis 2003 annual report(formerly SAMIS)[R].Washington DC,USA:United States Department of Transportation,2005.
[8] Ren J,Jenkinson I,Wang J.An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network [J].Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering,2009,131(4):041101.
[9] Wickens C D.Engineering psychology and human performance [M].2nd ed.New York:Harper Collins Publishers Inc,1992:211-257.
[10] 朱云斌,黄晓明,常青.模糊故障树分析方法在机场环境安全中的应用[J].国防科技大学学报,2009,31(6):126-131.
  Zhu Yunbin,Huang Xiaoming,Chang Qing.Application of the fuzzy fault tree analysis method to airport environment security[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2009,31(6):126-131.(in Chinese)
[11] 李娜,赵然杭,付海军.基于模糊数的事件树法在大坝风险分析中的应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2009(10):135-139.
  Li Na,Zhao Ranhang,Fu Haijun.Applied research on the event-tree method based on fuzzy numbers in risk analyses of dams [J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2009(10):135-139.(in Chinese)
[12] 李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.船舶驾驶失效搁浅概率的混合事件树分析[J].上海交通大学学报,2003,37(8):1146-1150.
  Li Dianqing,Tang Wenyong,Zhang Shengkun.Hybrid event tree calculation of ship grounding probability caused by piloting failure[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2003,37(8):1146-1150.(in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]高新南,刘松玉,童立元.苏州地铁车站基坑多支点咬合桩插入比分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(2):352.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.02.030]
 Gao Xinnan,Liu Songyu,Tong Liyuan.Analysis of ratio of embedded depth of multi-pivot secant piles to excavation depth in Suzhou subway stations[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2012,42(5):352.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.02.030]
[2]张鹤年,阳建强,孙广俊,等.地铁运行诱发的环境振动数值模拟与模型预测[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(5):988.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.05.034]
 Zhang Henian,Yang Jianqiang,Sun Guangjun,et al.Numerical simulation and model prediction for environmental vibrations induced by metro operation[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2012,42(5):988.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.05.034]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介: 陆莹(1984—)女,博士生; 李启明(联系人),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,njlqming@163.com.
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50878049)、江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CX09B-056Z).
引文格式: 陆莹,李启明,周志鹏.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地铁运营安全风险预测[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,40(5):1110-1114. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2010.05.043]
更新日期/Last Update: 2010-09-20