# [1]郭唐仪,Lin Xiaoli,Kracht Matthias.高速公路出口匝道事故预测模型优选及弹性分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,44(3):682-686.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041] 　Guo Tangyi,Lin Xiaoli,Kracht Matthias.Selection and elastic analysis of crash prediction models for freeway exit ramp[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2014,44(3):682-686.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041] 点击复制 高速公路出口匝道事故预测模型优选及弹性分析() 分享到： var jiathis_config = { data_track_clickback: true };

44

2014年第3期

682-686

2014-05-16

## 文章信息/Info

Title:
Selection and elastic analysis of crash prediction models for freeway exit ramp

1南京理工大学自动化学院, 南京 210094; 2杜伊斯堡-埃森大学东亚研究学院, 德国杜伊斯堡 47057; 3自由大学城市地理科学研究所, 德国柏林 12249
Author(s):
1School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
2IN-EAST School of Advanced Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg 47057, Germany
3Institut für Geographische Wiss

Keywords:

U491.31
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041

Abstract:
In order to explore the key factors causing crash occurrences, historical crash data and road traffic data at 405 exit ramps along the 24 freeways in Florida, the United States are employed, and the crashes are verified to follow the lognormal distribution. Four Poisson-lognormal crash prediction models are developed taking ramp traffic volume, ramp length, and design consistency(represented by average radius, curvature changing rate, and operating speed difference and operating speed changing rate, respectively)as explanatory variables and the crashes occurred during 2004 to 2006 as dependent variables. Among the four models, the one using operating speed changing rate as design consistency measure has the best goodness-of-fit and is chosen as the optimal model. The elasticity analysis based on the best goodness-of-fit model shows that speed changing rate and exposure length are significant factors. For safety purposes, the operating speed changing rate should be controlled within 20%, and the extreme minimum length and the general minimum length of an exit ramp should not be less than 200 and 400 m, respectively.

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