[1]郭唐仪,Lin Xiaoli,Kracht Matthias.高速公路出口匝道事故预测模型优选及弹性分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,44(3):682-686.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041]
　Guo Tangyi,Lin Xiaoli,Kracht Matthias.Selection and elastic analysis of crash prediction models for freeway exit ramp[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2014,44(3):682-686.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041]
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高速公路出口匝道事故预测模型优选及弹性分析()
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《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-0505/CN:32-1178/N]

卷:
44
期数:
2014年第3期
页码:
682-686
栏目:
交通运输工程
出版日期:
2014-05-16

文章信息/Info

Title:
Selection and elastic analysis of crash prediction models for freeway exit ramp
作者:
郭唐仪1; Lin Xiaoli2; Kracht Matthias3
1南京理工大学自动化学院, 南京 210094; 2杜伊斯堡-埃森大学东亚研究学院, 德国杜伊斯堡 47057; 3自由大学城市地理科学研究所, 德国柏林 12249
Author(s):
Guo Tangyi1;  Lin Xiaoli2;  Kracht Matthias3
1School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
2IN-EAST School of Advanced Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg 47057, Germany
3Institut für Geographische Wiss
关键词:
交通安全;  高速公路出口匝道;  事故预测;  弹性分析;  泊松对数正态模型
Keywords:
traffic safety;  freeway exit ramp;  crash prediction;  elastic analysis;  Poisson-lognormal model
分类号:
U491.31
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041
摘要:
为探索高速公路出口事故发生的关键诱因,依托美国佛罗里达州24条高速公路上405个出口匝道的历史事故和道路交通数据,验证了出口匝道事故服从于对数正态分布.以匝道交通量、匝道长度和设计一致性(分别以平均半径、曲率变化率、运行速度差和运行速度变化率度量)为解释变量,以2004—2006年间事故数为因变量,建立了4个泊松对数正态事故预测模型,其中以速度变化率表征设计一致性的事故预测模型具有最好的拟合度.基于最优拟合度模型的弹性分析表明,运行速度变化率及匝道长度为关键因素;基于安全考虑,出口匝道速度变化率宜控制在20%以内,出口匝道极限最小长度不宜小于200 m,一般最小长度不宜小于400 m.
Abstract:
In order to explore the key factors causing crash occurrences, historical crash data and road traffic data at 405 exit ramps along the 24 freeways in Florida, the United States are employed, and the crashes are verified to follow the lognormal distribution. Four Poisson-lognormal crash prediction models are developed taking ramp traffic volume, ramp length, and design consistency(represented by average radius, curvature changing rate, and operating speed difference and operating speed changing rate, respectively)as explanatory variables and the crashes occurred during 2004 to 2006 as dependent variables. Among the four models, the one using operating speed changing rate as design consistency measure has the best goodness-of-fit and is chosen as the optimal model. The elasticity analysis based on the best goodness-of-fit model shows that speed changing rate and exposure length are significant factors. For safety purposes, the operating speed changing rate should be controlled within 20%, and the extreme minimum length and the general minimum length of an exit ramp should not be less than 200 and 400 m, respectively.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2013-10-14.
作者简介: 郭唐仪(1982—),男,博士,副教授,transtor@mail.njust.edu.cn.
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51208261)、教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(12YCZH062)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(30920140132033)、美国佛罗里达州交通部资助项目(BD54438).
引用本文: 郭唐仪, Lin Xiaoli, Kracht Matthias.高速公路出口匝道事故预测模型优选及弹性分析[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2014,44(3):682-686. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2014.03.041]
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-05-20